Bien que l’évolution des acteurs soit très rapide, ce que nous retiendrons ici sera la constitution de pôles, qui eux-mêmes s’inter-pénètrent et s’influencent les uns les autres avec les pôles et acteurs mondiaux suivants

• Monde Anglo-saxon dont USA, Canada, Nouvelle-Zélande, une partie du Royaume-Uni, et Inde, géants US tels GAFAM, Pepsi, Exxon, GE, GMC..

• Europe des 27, avec ses pays alliés et territoires périphériques (dont Groënland et DOM-TOM)

• Chine, villes états, diaspora chinoise et filiales multinationales chinoises dans le monde, Huawei, Haier, Tencent, Lenovo..

• Japon, 3e économie mondiale, avec groupes mondiaux en Auto et électronique : TOYOTA, Matsushita, Sony, Pioneer, Epson, Brother, Akaï

• Corée du sud et ses géants multinationaux : Samsung, Hyundai dont 1er chantier naval mdl, LG, Daewoo, SK Group

• Taïwan (colonie Japon 1895-1945) et ses géants technologiques : Acer, HTC, Foxconn, TSMC, MSI

• Producteurs de pétrole ou gaz de taille mondiale : Russie, Arabie Saoudite, Qatar, Émirats, Iran, Irak, Algérie, Nigéria, Angola..

• Producteurs autres matières premières : Australie (Charbon), Afrique du Sud (Or, diamants), République Démocratique du Congo (cobalt, or, minerais, diamants, terres rares), Brésil (Or, soja), Pérou (Or, Cuivre)

• Métropoles mondiales autonomes : Singapour, Dubaï, Suisse (Zurich, Genève, Davos)

Présentation des 3 principaux Acteurs 

1/ EUROPE des 27 + 1 (Royaume-Uni /Brexit) + Alliés européens (Suisse, Norvège..) + Autres Alliés

• 450 millions de citoyens dont 152 millions en France et Allemagne

• Aéroports > 600 M passagers/an

• Env. 4,4 millions de naissances/an, dont 780.000 en France

• Env. 3 millions km2 et 21 M km2 d’espaces maritimes dont 637000 km2 (avec Guyane Française et DOM-TOM) et 12,5 M km2 = France

• 21 langues vivantes dont 5 langues majeures = le Français, l’Anglais, l’Allemand, l’Italien, l’Espanol parlées par 300 millions citoyens

• AIRBUS, Arianespace, 5 grands groupes automobiles Européens = Volkswagen-Audi, Peugeot-Citroën-Fiat, Renault-Nissan, BMW-Mini, Mercedes-Smart

• Top5 mondiaux ds toutes industries sauf semi-conducteurs, PC, batteries, logiciels

• Voies TGV de 4.000 km reliant 8 pays, construit en 40 ans (depuis 1974 en France)

• 15 millions Européens à Bac+5/+15 dont ingénieurs, informaticiens, médecins, chercheurs, gestionnaires, managers, architectes…

2/ USA et pays proches partenaires économiques = Canada, Australie et multinationales américaines dans le monde

• 330 millions habitants dont 105 millions Hispaniques et 60 millions d’Afro-Américains

• Aéroports > 800 M passagers/an

• Énormes distances d’est en ouest, du nord au sud et vers Hawaï ou Guam

• 5 fuseaux horaires, de l’EST-Eastern Standard Time (New York, Boston, Miami..) à l’AST-Alaska Standard Time, s’étalant de -6h à -10 heures par rapport à l’heure de Paris et Allemagne, Benelux, Italie, etc..

• Réseau ferroviaire stationnaire depuis 50 ans, avec 42.000 km de voies ferrées sur.. 9 millions km2, polluantes au diesel à 90%, à l’exception du Corridor Est électrifié (Boston-New York-Philadelphie) et de quelques trains voyageurs régionaux. Lobbying intense des pétroliers, Greyhound & compagnies aériennes pour tuer projets Texas et FOX (Florida Overland Express), où ALSTOM était associé à BOMBARDIER.

• Continent très hétérogène en populations, climats, transports

• Grandes faiblesses en langues et compréhension culturelle et géopolitique du monde

• Organisation armée américaine en Irak = 100% supermarchés #US alimentés par cargos (fuel, pollution, coût), 4.000 morts

3/ CHINE et monde chinois ou sinophone, dont Hong-Kong, Macao, Singapour, Taïwan (indépendant), >50M membres de la diaspora chinoise en Asie, Occident et dans le monde

• 1.422 millions habitants fin 2019, dont 950 millions ds métropoles et 300 villes millionnaires

• Baisse de population de -5 millions en 2018 et 2019, du fait de vieillissement population

• 2e armée du monde, avec investissements multipliés par 50 depuis 1986

• montage de 4 bases militaires en 20 mois = 3 en mer de Chine et face au Vietnam et aux Philippines, 1 à Djibouti (ex-Territoire français des Afars & des Issas, corne de l’Afrique, point stratégique proche du détroit d’Ormuz)

• 1er industriel mondial en acier, automobile, ferroviaire, béton, batteries électriques, montage de PC et téléphones (usines de Foxconn pour Apple en Chine)

• 1er consommateur de charbon polluant au monde (et client Australie) pour ses centrales thermiques et de ce fait 1er pollueur mondial

• 3 des 4 principaux ports mondiaux = SHANGHAI, HONG KONG & TIANJIN

• Réseau ferroviaire passé de 40.000 km à 107.000 km en 33 ans, de 1987 à 2020, avec intégration du Tibet et des ‘Routes de la Soie’ du Nord-Ouest dans le réseau

• Voies de type TGV passées de 0 à 20.000 km & desservant 52 métropoles chinoises en.. 20 ans

• 80% des terres rares (PC, tél. portables, tablettes..) produites au monde

Ce qui est frappant pour l’Europe de 2020, c’est à la fois pour la première fois la conscience des intérêts économiques européens stratégiques avec la Commission UVDL, du nom de sa présidente, Ursula von der Leyen, Allemande, et la désunion des pays européens, illustrée lors de la crise sanitaire du Coronavirus, où la plupart des pays ont fermé leurs frontières, pour se propager de la transmission du virus venant potentiellement des pays voisins. 

Il est aussi frappant de voir que trop de champions nationaux sont vendus un peu vite à des acteurs stratégiques chinois (comme Volvo vendu à Geely, Jaguar-Rover vendu à Tata, Chantiers Atlantique vendus à groupe coréen..), asiatiques ou américains (Alstom Energie à GE, USA), sans prendre en considération des alternatives européennes crédibles.

Quelles sont les pistes et stratégies qui pourraient renforcer l’EUROPE PUISSANCE ou l’Union Européenne rénovée ?

• Plus de pluri-linguisme des étudiants européens et des dirigeants d’entreprises et des états, ainsi que les hauts fonctionnaires

• En triplant les coopérations franco-allemandes, les deux pays moteurs de l’économie européennes, représentant > 35% de la population de l’Union Européenne à 27

• Créer un fond stratégique européen de 500 Mds euros, pour venir en aide aux technologies, PME et groupes stratégiques présents en Europe et pour faire de l’Europe un centre d’innovation mondial de premier plan dans les années 2024-2124, pour les générations futures

• Accélérer le développement ERASMUS, qui a permis à des millions de jeunes européens d’étudier dans un autre pays de l’Union et d’apprendre une autre langue européenne, créant ainsi plus de 300.000 couples et familles bi-nationales

• Formation systématique des journalistes à l’ACTU européenne, pour les sortir de leur nombrilisme national ou de la parisiano-centrisme..

• L’EUROPE existera plus si les journalistes, tels ceux de Courrier International ou d’ARTE, en parlent plus aux citoyens européens

• Développer les inter-connexions ferroviaires pour la GVE ou Grande Vitesse Européenne, permettant de circuler en TGV d’un bout à l’autre de l’Europe 

• Continuer à accueillir des étudiants des autres pays européens de façon privilégiée, grâce à la réforme réussie des BAC+3(Licences) /+5 (Masters)/+8 (doctorats) au niveau européen

• Plus de Joint Venture et de participations croisées entre PME et grands groupes européens, dans le but de se renforcer mutuellement

• Plus de statistiques européennes disponibles pour le grand public et les TPE/PME, via notamment INSEE et EUROSTAT

• Plus d’incitations données aux TPE et PME européennes à travailler en JV, GIE ou projets européens à l’échelle de 2, 3 pays ou +

• Avant de réformer l’OMS (qui en a besoin), construire une AES ou Agence Europe Santé, qui intégrerait a minima des acteurs des 15 principaux pays européens, avant de les intégrer tous et d’étendre ses partenariats avec Suisse, Norvège, GB, Ukraine, Croatie, Serbie, etc..

• Plus d’Alliances industrielles et de recherche entre laboratoires européens

Tous les projets méritent d’être améliorés, en bonne intelligence et coopération. Vous êtes donc les bienvenus pour vos commentaires, idées et suggestions pour améliorer encore ces pistes, qui feront du bien aux futures générations vivant en Europe, en meilleure compréhension et écoute les uns des autres.

François P. VALLET, ESCP EUROPE, Paris, Oxford et Berlin

NB: Je tiens à remercier ici les étudiants de tous les pays d’Europe, que j’ai eu la chance de côtoyer pendant mes études trilingues à l’ESCP EUROPE, ainsi que les enseignants et chercheurs francophones, anglophones et germanophones, qui nous ont accompagnés au cours de ces trois années d’expérience européennes, et en particulier Liam SHANAHAM, Deborah JONES, Georges LIAROCAPIS, Ken CASTLER, Werner JUERGENS, Sasha SERAFIMOVSKY, François PAULY, Marie-Bernadette CALS, Christian MOGNOL, Isabelle LENTZ, Stéphane ROUZAUD, Nadine BEREZAK, Alexande SICARD, Anne FURTHMANN, Jürgen VANSELOW, Yannick HNATKOW, Charles-Henri de CIDRAC, Anne-Marie DINGS, Olivier de CANSON, Roald GOETHE, Frédéric LARIVAILLE, Peter MEHRING, Agnès SROKA, Frédéric CORBASSON, Gilbert GERBER, Christian LORENZEN, Christine CORDIER, Michael ROMANOV, Éric TABAKA, Stefanie DZIEKAN, Michel RAIMBAULT, Olivier BOMBEZIN, Delphine COSSERAT, Frédéric BASSETTO (décédé le 19/09/2019), Thomas SANDERS et tous ceux que je ne peux pas ici citer, mais que je remercie infiniment pour leur soutien, leur aide ou leur vision originale de l’Europe et leurs perceptions partagées.

Cet article EUROPE PUISSANCE ou Europe, filiale USA ou colonie chinoise en 2035 est apparu en premier sur Actualités en France : Start-ups, PME, Arts, Histoire.

Cet article GÉOPOLITIQUE – GÉO-ÉCONOMIE est apparu en premier sur Actualités en France : Start-ups, PME, Arts, Histoire.

A major international crisis

URGENT measures to take

Since December 2019 in China (as early as Nov.17^th for case 0), the world has been hit by a new dangerous virus called #Coronavirus or #COVID19.

This virus appears in WUHAN, 11m inh, 7^th largest metropolis in China, Head City of HUBEI, major industrial state in central CHINA.

HUBEI has 59 millions inhabitants, comparable to Italy, Britain or Skorea. This virus also called #WUHAN_virus by Taiwan paper seems to have been best managed in South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore & Hong-Kong but accelerated in other Asian countries such as IRAN, Pakistan and Malaysia…

ITALY (+San Marino) > 170,368 cases & 22,208 dead. Cases revised with partial elderly houses figures (+13,000 & +1,000 dead). Hospitals lack beds, material and personnel. Country is slowly entering the peak of its 1st pandemy thanks to confinerment. Help received from China, Cuba, Germany (18 cases hospitalized there). Euro-League Football match between BERGAMO & FC VALENCIA has itself propagated virus to over 4,000 in Italy & Spain… Over 76 priests have died in Italy. Huge apparent letality rate of 13% is due to lack of testing and massive propagation by 80% of asymptomatic (no symptoms visible) unknown cases, estimated over 3 m.

RUSSIA > 195,566 cases & 19,557 dead. See note 2c. Terrible explosion of cases with Hospitals lacking of masks, gels, ICUs, beds.. Boarders with China closed by China this time. Over 500 Chinese expatriates to Russia back to China with the Virus. https://www.lepoint.fr/monde/russie-c-est-d-une-telle-stupidite-de-vouloir-nous-empecher-d-aider-les-soignants-07-04-2020-2370351_24.php

SPAIN > 182,906 cases and 19,141 dead, of which >60,000 in Madrid alone & 5,037 dead. Cases revised with partial elderly houses figures (+10,000 & +1,000 dead). Hospitals lack material and personnel. Country in URGENT NEED of HELP. Death figures have skyrocketed in 15 days, with letality rate exceeding 10.5%. Football match between Bergamo & FC Valencia on Febr. 19th (Milano) proven deadly with vast propagation among supporters.

https://theduran.com/brazilian-government-denies-coronavirus-severity/

Brazilian government denies coronavirus severity Submitted by InfoBrics, authored by Lucas Leiroz, research fellow in international law at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro… Last week, a secret document from the Brazilian Intelligence Agency (ABIN) was leaked on internet and published by The Intercept website. The document consists of a detailed report about the coronavirus pandemic in Brazil, taking an overall assessment of the … theduran.com

BRITAIN > 105,006  cases & 14,002 dead. A devastating acceleration with death figure multiplied by 300 in 2 weeks, and letality rate rising from 1% to ~14% (Top5 letality rates with IRAN, ITALY, SPAIN). PM B. Johnson in Hospital for 4 days.. 4 Huge Rock concerts were authorized for the Stereophonics (> 35,000 attending) in England & Scotland mid-March in moves considered as CRAZY by Italians, Chinese and the world doctors. Such mass EVENTS in a Pandemic Time are criminal ! History and the British population will remember.. Experts are afraid of British figures quickly hitting 20,000 dead & exeeding those of France…Though toll rises fast, people in Parks…unconscious of danger !

NORTH KOREA  > 150,000 cases and > 15,000 dead. Regime has recently admitted they needed HELP for over 7,500 PNEUMONIA cases, without admitting they were badly hit by the Coronavirus, with their Northern boarder shared with northern China. Not surprisingly, these figures are much worse than in South Korea.

PAKISTAN > 48,433 cases & 4,843 dead. Pakistan opened its Balouchistan boarder with IRAN 3 weeks ago, welcoming over 100,000 Pakistanese workers in IRAN back…without significant checks…Future figures risk to be explosive, if the proper Tests are not done to control the pandemic. Official figures are under-estimated. See 2c

BELGIUM > 34,809 cases & 4,857 dead. Fast & accelerating growth of cases with 1 case per 250 inhabitants. 480 dead /million. Death toll accelerating wih letality rate sky high at ~14%. Confinement decided after France. More cases in Flanders than in Southern Wallonia but comparable number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

GERMANY ~135,549 cases and 3,850 deaths. Cases are much better identified than in most countries due to fast increasing number of tests. Letality rate remains low, though it increased to 1.45% about 8 times less than in Italy. This is due to many Beds available and a systematic testing done of 500,000 people/week from 160,000/wk previously. Over 2 m were tested so far.

EGYPT > 30,060 cases & 3,307 dead. To correct partial figures & toll, See note 2c. Actual figures are thought by most experts & tourism scientist to be very far higher than these official figures… Expert estimates run 50 times higher… from 45,000 to 120,000 cases & at least 4,500 dead…Do keep in mind Egypt infected > 40 European tourists (of which 11 French) as early as mid-February, at a time where official figures were at … no official cases declared…

ALGERIA > 24,948 cases & 3,480 dead. Though figures are hard to get & be centralized, observers think the actual figures are significantly higher, especially due to 150,000 Franco-Algerian citizens who have taken the boats from Marseilles to Algeria..during confinement.. If only 3% were infected (4,500), cases have silently boomed in the last weeks… Letality rate of 15% very high because of  unsufficient testing of population.

NETHERLANDS > 29,615 cases & 3,346 deaths. Though Tests unsufficiant, 1 case per 520 inhabitants. Death numbers multiplied by 100 in 15 days with letality rate doubled to 10.8% (TOP10 world). Decision to confine much too late infected huge numbers of citizens. As test numbers remain too low to isolate most of the dormant & asymptomatic cases, aggravated cases have increased fast, inducing much higher letality rates. Better survival rate than in Belgium. 200 dead/m.

IRAK > 14,340 cases & > 1,434 dead. See note 2c with vastly underestimated figures reviewed. IRAK suffers highly infected IRAN next door. With about 70% of Irak population made of Chiites, and very close to IRAN in the recent years, IRAK has been heavily contaminated by its neighbour, as everyone feared… Actual figures estimated > 25,000 cases & > 2,000 dead.

SWEDEN > 12,340 cases & 1,333 dead. With fast increasing figures, Swedish authorities are paying confinement refusal so far. Testing unsufficient. Letality rate has grown fast, from 2.5% on Tuesday to 11%. Though Scandinavia performs much better than Southern Europe in its fight against the VIRUS, Sweden is the bad student on this one. Still too many people in Parks with no or few masks so far and population unconscious of potential danger.

CANADA > 28,381 cases & 1,011 dead. QUEBEC just opened a new TESTING center opened 7 days/7 from 8am to 8pm & with confinement rules. Letality rate remains low with. Testing ratio & govt reaction much faster than in the USA so far. Better + earlier confinement give much better virus control with so far only 6 dead/m.

SWITZERLAND > 26,732 cases & 1,269 dead. With 8,4m population = 1 case for 300 inhabitants). Letality rate has trebled to 4.8% due to more ICUs. French medical staff working as cross-boarder helpers on French boarder and excellent medical equipment. Propagation has also been caused by Italy with some 500,000 Swiss Italians & important cross-boarder daily exchanges with Northern Italy.

PORTUGAL > 18,841 cases & 629 dead. Fast rising number of cases and probable Human exchanges with heavily hit & neighbouring SPAIN. Letality rate now at 3.7%. Portugal does resist much better than Spain with good decisions taken by Government.

INDONESIA > 5,576 cases & 501 dead. Figures have increased faster in this densely populated archipelago. Following tourism & movement figures by huge populations, cases look underestimated. Testing to be improved both in volume & accessibility. Official letality rate now reaching 9%

INDIA > 12,759 cases and 423 dead. PM Modi decided a Federal confinement 9 days ago. It might save millions of lives, as Indian figures are accelerating in the last week. Fears are growing for the poorest of the ~200 Indian metropolises and major cities.

MEXICO  > 6,547 cases and 450 dead. Though Mexico city delivers safety packages with 28 masks included to all having fever, explosion of cases with unsufficient testing could bring much more dramatic figures in the coming weeks.

ECUADOR > 8,158 cases & 418 dead. Heavy toll in the Amerindian populations and too few hospitals and Health facilities in isolated Mountainous villages and towns. Coming 2nd in South America, after Brasil. Already 5% letality rate.

AUSTRIA > 14,451 cases, 395 dead. Though death numbers increase, early closure of boarder with Italy & intense TESTING pays off. Letality rate among the best ones in Europe with 2.72%. Only 50 dead/m.

PHILIPPINES > 6,160 cases & 362 dead. As many might have foreseen, most of the teams serving the 2,500 passengers on the Diamond Princess in Yokohama were Philippinoes with at least 59 cases declared on board, for lack of strict confinement zones on board. These Princess Cruise employees were later repatriated to the Philippines. Letality rate now reaching 6%.

PERU > 11,507 cases & 303 dead. Fast increasing figures in a poorly equipped country make international observers and WHO fear booming pandemic and a heavy toll, especially among Amerindians.

DENMARK > 7,074 cases & 321 dead. Less than in Norway & with more travelers, Danish authorities are testing their population, inducing early treatments. But letality trebled to 4.4%. Performing better than Sweden with slower growth of cases and far less victims.

South KOREA > 10,613 cases & 229 dead. COVID control in this highly populated urban country is remarkable and due to a sum of measures detailed here below. Letality rate is only 2.14% one of the best in the world after Singapore (0.3%), Norway (1.1%), Taiwan (1.41%), Germany (1.45%)... Only 3 dead/m.

JAPAN (of which Cruise Ship Diamond Princess) 9,440 cases & 191 deaths. Cases on terrestrial grounds keep increasing slowly. Letality rate stable with 2% with the Ship included. Brutal explosion of propagation & cases in the last week when former figures had remained very quiet. Tokyo is confined since SAKURA Festival days… Japan should soon reach beyond neighbouring South Korea in victims.

ISRAEL > 12,591 cases & 140 dead. Though the country has virtually closed boarders, propagation is very quick and strong for the last 8 days. The Ultra Orthodox Jews, who are not respecting confinement & group meetings keep going to the synagogues & already represent over 50% of cases and death toll.

NORWAY > 6,798 cases, 150 dead. High figures for a 5.2 m population mean better knowledge of actual cases = 1 case per 900 inhabitants. Schools, bars, restaurants & all events are closed. No more than 5 in meetings. No commuting to summer residences; but no confinement so far. Letality rate at 2.15%  is one of the lowest in the world. Excellent rate of testing and early appraisal of infected citizens.

MALAYSIA > 5,217 cases & 85 dead. Cases multiplied by 20 in 11 days.. Cases follow up and number of TESTS improving but far behind excellent Singapore.

AUSTRALIA > 6,462 cases & 63 dead.  Very strict controls in all airports and public places. Tom Hanks & his wife infected, quarantined and cured. Exceptional stability of new cases and few are dying. Letality rate one of the best in the world with only 0.98%

All figures may be partial or uncomplete as a lack of transparency or lack of tests and labs have been observed in many countries (< 45,000 tests/day in the USA), without mentioning the unwillingness to test of some countries (IRAN, North Korea..), which looks crazy or a crime vs their population, after virologists & medical observers.

Indeed, to counter a massive propagation with 80% of COVID19 carriers not knowing it, there is a clear URGENCY to TEST, quickly and massively, isolate and stop propagation.

All medical observers have indeed noted the earliest the cases are known, the better to follow up with transmission chains, such as in South Korea. On the contrary, when cases are known too late, as in Spain (11% letality) or in Italy (13%) letality rates go crazy for lack of preparation and follow up.

Cf excellent article by Tomas Pueyo here

chrome-extension://oemmndcbldboiebfnladdacbdfmadadm/http://h16free.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/covid19.pdf

LETALITY rate

It varies an awful lot from 0.35% in Singapore or 2.1% in S.KOREA thanks to MASSIVE TESTING and follow up of patients’s encounters in the last 15 days with SMS flow ups sent to contacts to test to …5% in the USA, 13% in Italy, 14% in the UK and probably >15% in IRAN, because of a muted type of virus which adds a myocardite with a VIRUS which also attacks patients’ hearts… which is a precious information given by Iranian doctors forced to speak anonymously for fear of local police & authorities… They are mentioning huge fatalities and mass graves…

Even if actual average world known figures run at 7% letality rates (up +80%) with ~400,000 dead out of 5,500,000 cases, there are huge differences behind depending on 7 measures working .. when applied :

• TEST massively all citizens & families in contact with knwon case (with SMS calls & teams of COVID19 data followers, who may be students or fast reacting research teams tracking all cases ; this may also be done by private start-ups or companies, which tend to be faster & more reactive than Health authorities. Success achieved by S.KOREA on this point.

• MASSIVE CONFINEMENT to counter fast propagation rates, and avoiding crowds (Italy, Spain, concerts, big events..)

• SYSTEMATIC CLEANING every day in trains, airplanes, airports, croissroads, streets, by specialized & equipped teams as in China & South Korea

• MASSIVE DISTRIBUTION OF MASKS, as is done in Singapore with Soap on every Building basement

• RESPECTING SECURITY DISTANCES OF 2 METERS = Having clients enter Food stores only in limited numbers, with queues respected

Because of IRAN, PAKISTAN, EGYPT, VIETNAM… figures largely underestimated world cases can be estimated as of today as a minimum of actual

• > 500,000 cases and > 20,000 deaths

RISKS & OPPORTUNITIES

A/ Seen or expected within 4 weeks

• Cancellation of over 20,000 international events (including NBA & Sports Leagues) & concerts, or events reported.

• Cancellation of Telecom shows in Barcelona & San Dieg, Ca

• Heavy fall of many stocks on the World Stock Exchanges because of incertitudes on the duration of the crisis

• Heavy fall of turnover of tourism companies such as hotelry, restaurants, shopping malls, air companies, airports, buses, cruise ships…

• Massive increase in mask, gel, soap, specialized protection kits production

• Local markets still active with security distances checked.. or closed by authorities if no respect of such security distances…

• Cancellation of company events and large forums

• Cancellation of Calcio and LIGA (Soccer leagues in Italy & Spain)

• Risk of company bankruptcies such as fragile airlines (ALITALIA…)

• Heavy risk of COVID19 propagation to millions of figures worldwide with >>50,000 deaths worldwide

• Countires infected rising from current 162 to universal infection. Danger of re-infection in some observed Chinese cases…

B/ From 4 weeks to 4 months

• Bankruptcy risks for millions of SOHOS and small companies, in case debt agreements cannot be reached quickly with the Help of Banks and National Tresuries & Finance ministries…

• Bankruptcy of 10 to 30 international airlines

• Acceleration of Digitalization of the economies with more and more population having access to internet via smartphones, tablets or computers..

• Millions of citizens getting back to Nature with autonomous internet facilities, with the obligation of medical facilities within reach.

• New WHO – World Health Organization reactivity and computing facilities & teams, to follow up with the crisis. Currently having 1 to 4 days late figures on actual COVID19 national figures…

• Listening more to medical teams in the field and their general & unanimous message repeated 100 times on the social networks : STAY AT HOME PLEASE !

• NATIONAL PRIORITIES TO FIGHT THE VIRUS, as > 30% citizens have not yet understood how serious this COVID19 crisis was !

• Get best coordination and HELP from Private Companies and doctors, which have proven EVERYWHERE more reactive than authorities …

• https://twitter.com/LIndispensac/status/1239229423938949126/photo/1

• Cancellation risk of TOKYO Olympic Games, for the 1^st time in 80 years..

C/ Risks & opportunities 9 to 15 mois (until Xmas 2020 or latest Juin 2021)

• New internet & digitalization tools & applications securing and helping millions of Humans & pets in need.

• Good regular videoconferencing Habits taken by international leaders, with more cooperation and exchange of views on screens.

• Better coordination of European capitals, with the exception of London, suffering from BREXIT decision & vote…

• Industrial relocalisation of certain strategic units such as medicines , auto parts, machinery..)

• Bankruptcy of millions of companies worldwide, especially the most indebted ones

• Number of confirmed cases > 3 millions in the USA alone with over 75,000 dead (2.5% letality rate)

• Acceleration of all Green Energies installation that can be continued during the crisis. More local autonomous batteries and local energy solutions

• Renewable energies to weigh over 30% du mix énergétique européenof European Energy Mix until 2021 and 2022

• Agro-Forestery fast Growth with less pesticides and soil regenerated by quality insects such as european worms.

• Planting over 200 bn Trees worldwide to balance CO2 fumes to take advantage of thousands of citizrens under-employed. Very low costs of plants & plantlets to grow : Ethiopia, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, China, USA, Australia, Africa, Europe and so on…

• Balancing of CLIMATE Temperature Growth with the planting of such billions of trees, plants and new algae production units in developped countries.

• Fall of US growth and re-start of China on the ashes of the COVID19 3,300 deaths in China.

• Slow re-start of other European economies with new cautions and a better European together organization of River deliveries and cleaner transportation.

• Big impact on the US National campaign and gatherings with many US politicians to be confined and campaigning behind their screens…

• Worldwide COVID19 cases to exceed 80 millions with over 320,000 dead

• China increasing its share of the World riches and ressources consumed with more Green Energies, be that Solar, Wind Turbines, Hydro-electricity or others…

China ordered a strict confinement with

• 400 confirmed cases in WUHAN and has had 3,223 dead so far

Italy waited for Lombardia (Milan) to reach 3,000 cases to do so = High letality rate and hospitals overwhelmed…

Spain waited for Madrid to reach 2,500 cases to do so = Overwhelmed with number of dead shooting up from 131 to 533 in 4 days…

France waited for Ile-de-France to reach 1,700 cases to do so = High risks

Germany waited for Bavaria to reach 2,000 cases to do so = High Risks

Dear friends from Switzerland, Austria, Netherlands, Belgium, UK, USA, Scandinanvia, world countries… please

Do not wait until you TEST massively your cases’ contacts and confine your population before it is too late…

• Articles and sources used

• https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/19/health/coronavirus-china-sars-mers-intl-hnk/index.html

• These Chinese scientists do recommend a 22-day isolation period. 14 days are NOT enough https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.26.20028431v1

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubLCDxZ-sTI

• chrome-extension://oemmndcbldboiebfnladdacbdfmadadm/https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200315-sitrep-55-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=33daa5cb_6

• Learn our lessons for containing Coronavirus Pandemic : https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3075297/china-west-learn-our-lessons-containing-coronavirus-epidemic?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=article&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1584308570 by @SCMP (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong)

I am not a Doctor but only a ESCP EUROPE Business Graduate with brains, and I have read over 900 pages from > 200 sources and looked at over 500 videos on COVID19 topics.

If this article on Coronavirus has helped you in any way, be kind to share it with your friends, brothers and sisters and all the people you LOVE to help them get through, before.. it is too late !

François P. VALLET, ESCP EUROPE, LFA Editor – La France Audacieuse , March 18^th, 2020

This article has been revised 7 times, latest 17th April, 2020, to take into account the recent evolutions

Cet article CORONAVIRUS or COVID19 Case Study est apparu en premier sur Actualités en France : Start-ups, PME, Arts, Histoire.